Update, May 26: Paxton won the runoff with roughly 62% of the vote, ending John Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career. Trump’s endorsement pushed Paxton over the line. Cornyn, a three-term senator and former Majority Whip, lost by more than 20 points to a man he once called “not fit for office.”
The November general election is now Paxton vs. Talarico. Polling shows Talarico leading Paxton by 5 to 8 points.
The record: Paxton vs. Talarico
Paxton was indicted for securities fraud in 2015, settled in 2024 with $300K in restitution and community service. He was impeached on 20 articles including bribery and abuse of trust. The Senate acquitted him 16-14.
He is under an ongoing FBI bribery investigation. His net favorability is -9 points.
Talarico is a former middle school teacher who was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes during his first campaign. He passed a law capping insulin at $25 per month.
He raised $27 million in Q1 2026, a national record, with 97% of donations under $100 and zero corporate PAC money. His net favorability is +10 points.
$27 million in one quarter. 97% of donations under $100. Zero corporate PAC money. A national record.
| Paxton (R) | Talarico (D) | |
|---|---|---|
| Indictments | Securities fraud (settled 2024) | None |
| Impeached | Yes, 20 articles (acquitted 16-14) | No |
| FBI investigation | Yes, ongoing | No |
| Q1 fundraising | Not disclosed | $27M (national record) |
| Corporate PAC money | Yes | $0 |
| Favorability | -9 points | +10 points |
| Key legislation | 48 lawsuits, challenged 2020 election | $25 insulin cap, school finance reform |
| Endorsements | Trump | Obama |
The runoff is over. The general election starts now.
Texas Republicans chose the indicted attorney general over a three-term incumbent. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Attorney General Ken Paxton, the man he once publicly called “not fit for office.” Trump endorsed Paxton one week ago. Whoever wins faces James Talarico in November.
Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988. Talarico is running like he thinks that streak ends this year. He might be right.
The numbers
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Talarico Q1 fundraising | $27 million (national record for any Senate Q1) |
| Total raised since September 2025 | $40+ million |
| Share of donations under $100 | 97% |
| Corporate PAC money accepted | $0 |
| Talarico favorability (net) | +10 points |
| Cornyn favorability (net) | -12 points |
| Paxton favorability (net) | -9 points |
Talarico vs. Cornyn
UT Texas Politics Project polling (April 2026): Talarico leads Cornyn 40% to 33%, a 7-point margin. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows a tighter race: Talarico 44%, Cornyn 41%.
Cornyn is a three-term senator with $15M+ cash on hand and strong institutional support. But his approval has cratered since voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill, which cut $911 billion from Medicaid in a state where 5.4 million Texans are enrolled.
Talarico vs. Paxton
The same polls show Talarico leading Paxton by 5 to 8 points. Paxton carries the weight of his securities fraud indictment, his 2023 impeachment (acquitted by the Senate), and his office’s aggressive use of state power to pursue political opponents.
Trump’s endorsement could push Paxton over the line in today’s runoff. If it does, Democrats believe the general election matchup favors them. Paxton is underwater with independents by double digits.
Who is Paxton
Ken Paxton has been Texas Attorney General since 2015. In that time he has been indicted on securities fraud charges, impeached by his own party on 20 articles including bribery and abuse of public trust, and placed under FBI investigation for federal bribery. The Texas House voted 121-23 to impeach him. The Senate acquitted him 16-14.
The securities fraud indictment came in 2015 after a grand jury found he encouraged investors to buy stock in a company without disclosing he would earn a commission. He settled in 2024 by paying $300,000 in restitution and completing 100 hours of community service. The charges were dropped weeks before trial.
As AG, he filed 48 lawsuits against the Biden administration, targeted sanctuary cities, went after transgender healthcare providers, and challenged the 2020 election results at the U.S. Supreme Court.
His office has been used as a weapon against political opponents and cities that pass policies he disagrees with.
Senior staff in his office accused him of bribery and abuse of office in 2020. Several were fired. Their whistleblower complaints triggered the FBI investigation that remains open.
Who is Talarico
James Talarico is a 33-year-old state representative from Williamson County (Round Rock, north of Austin). He was a middle school teacher before running for office. He is a Presbyterian seminary graduate who quotes scripture in debates about poverty and healthcare, which drives Republican opponents to distraction.
In the Texas House, he:
- Passed a law capping insulin copays at $25/month. Texas was the first state to enact this specific cap.
- Fought school vouchers on the House floor. His confrontations with GOP leadership over diverting public school funding to private schools went viral repeatedly.
- Co-sponsored bills to import cheaper prescription drugs from Canada, expand Medicaid county-by-county in states that refused expansion, and add dental/vision/hearing to Medicare.
His Senate campaign calls its healthcare plan “Medicare for Y’all.” He refuses corporate PAC money. 97% of his $40M+ in donations are under $100.
Why this race matters nationally
Texas has 30.5 million people. It sends two Republican senators. If Talarico wins, it reshapes the Senate map for a decade.
But beyond the numbers: this race tests whether a young progressive populist running on kitchen-table economics (drug prices, housing costs, public schools) can win in a state that has been called unwinnable for Democrats since Ann Richards lost the governorship in 1994.
Obama visited Austin in May to support Talarico and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. National money is flowing. The infrastructure is real.
What happens next
Today’s Republican runoff determines the matchup. Results expected tonight after polls close at 7 PM CT.
If Cornyn wins: the general election is a test of whether $27M in grassroots energy can beat a three-term incumbent in a red state.
If Paxton wins: the general election is a referendum on whether Texas voters will send an indicted attorney general with a -9 favorability rating to the U.S. Senate.
Either way, November starts tomorrow.
What you can do
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Check your registration for November. The general election is November 3, 2026. Texas registration deadline is October 5. Verify your status now.
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Follow the race. The Texas Tribune will have ongoing coverage of Paxton vs. Talarico.
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Help three people register before October 5. Texas does not have online voter registration. You can print and mail a form from votetexas.gov, or volunteer with a local voter registration drive to reach people who need help with the paper process.
Sources
- Texas Tribune: Texas Public Opinion Research poll
- PBS: Paxton Settles Securities Fraud Charges Weeks Before Trial
- Wikipedia: Ken Paxton Impeachment, Indictments, and FBI Investigation
- The Hill: Obama Visits Austin to Campaign for Talarico and Hinojosa
- UT Texas Politics Project: Senate Race Polling and Republican Turnout Challenges
- Vote.org: Check Your Texas Voter Registration Status