Texas Republicans Are Picking Their Senate Nominee Today. Democrats Haven't Won This Seat in 30 Years.

The runoff is today. The general election starts tomorrow.

Texas Republicans vote today in one of the most bitter Senate runoffs in state history. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Attorney General Ken Paxton, the man he once publicly called “not fit for office.” Trump endorsed Paxton one week ago. Whoever wins faces James Talarico in November.

Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988. Talarico is running like he thinks that streak ends this year. He might be right.

The numbers

Talarico vs. Cornyn

UT Texas Politics Project polling (April 2026): Talarico leads Cornyn 40% to 33%, a 7-point margin. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows a tighter race: Talarico 44%, Cornyn 41%.

Cornyn is a three-term senator with $15M+ cash on hand and strong institutional support. But his approval has cratered since voting for the One Big Beautiful Bill, which cut $911 billion from Medicaid in a state where 5.4 million Texans are enrolled.

Talarico vs. Paxton

The same polls show Talarico leading Paxton by 5 to 8 points. Paxton carries the weight of his securities fraud indictment, his 2023 impeachment (acquitted by the Senate), and his office’s aggressive use of state power to pursue political opponents.

Trump’s endorsement could push Paxton over the line in today’s runoff. If it does, Democrats believe the general election matchup favors them. Paxton is underwater with independents by double digits.

Who is Talarico

James Talarico is a 33-year-old state representative from Williamson County (Round Rock, north of Austin). He was a middle school teacher before running for office. He is a Presbyterian seminary graduate who quotes scripture in debates about poverty and healthcare, which drives Republican opponents to distraction.

In the Texas House, he:

• Passed a law capping insulin copays at $25/month. Texas was the first state to enact this specific cap.
• Fought school vouchers on the House floor. His confrontations with GOP leadership over diverting public school funding to private schools went viral repeatedly.
• Co-sponsored bills to import cheaper prescription drugs from Canada, expand Medicaid county-by-county in states that refused expansion, and add dental/vision/hearing to Medicare.

His Senate campaign calls its healthcare plan “Medicare for Y’all.” He refuses corporate PAC money. 97% of his $40M+ in donations are under $100.

Why this race matters nationally

Texas has 30.5 million people. It sends two Republican senators. If Talarico wins, it reshapes the Senate map for a decade.

But beyond the numbers: this race tests whether a young progressive populist running on kitchen-table economics (drug prices, housing costs, public schools) can win in a state that has been called unwinnable for Democrats since Ann Richards lost the governorship in 1994.

Obama visited Austin last week to support Talarico and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. National money is flowing. The infrastructure is real.

What happens next

Today’s Republican runoff determines the matchup. Results expected tonight after polls close at 7 PM CT.

If Cornyn wins: the general election is a test of whether $27M in grassroots energy can beat a three-term incumbent in a red state.

If Paxton wins: the general election is a referendum on whether Texas voters will send an indicted attorney general with a -9 favorability rating to the U.S. Senate.

Either way, November starts tomorrow.

What you can do

1. If you are in Texas, vote. The runoff is today, May 26. Find your polling place. Polls close at 7 PM.

2. Check your registration for November. The general election is November 3, 2026. Texas registration deadline is October 5. Verify your status now.

3. Follow the results tonight. The Texas Tribune and NPR will have live results.

Read more on the Voting and Elections hub and our Texas state page.