The Numbers That Should Scare Every Texas Republican
Ken Paxton ties Democrat James Talarico 45-45 in general election polling. John Cornyn leads Talarico 45-44. One of those margins gives Republicans a seat. The other gives Democrats a real shot at flipping Texas for the first time since 1993.
On May 19, Trump endorsed Paxton over Cornyn on Truth Social, calling Paxton “a true MAGA Warrior” and jabbing Cornyn for not being supportive “when things were tough.” Within 72 hours, a SoCal Strategies poll of 700 likely runoff voters showed Paxton at 57%, Cornyn at 35%. Before the endorsement, the University of Houston had the race at 48-45.
The runoff is May 26.
What Trump Is Rewarding
Here is what loyalty to Trump gets you, regardless of your record:
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 2015 | Indicted on two felony securities fraud charges for defrauding investors in a Dallas tech startup |
| 2020 | Eight senior staffers reported Paxton to the FBI for bribery and abuse of office. All eight were fired or forced out. |
| 2023 | Impeached 121-23 by the Texas House, including 60 Republicans voting yes |
| 2023 | Acquitted 16-14 by the Texas Senate, with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick presiding over the trial |
| 2024 | Agreed to pay $271,000 in restitution, complete 100 hours of community service, and take 15 hours of legal ethics courses to make the fraud charges go away. No admission of wrongdoing. |
| 2025 | Ordered to pay $6.6 million to the whistleblowers he fired. With your tax dollars. |
Paxton also filed 106 lawsuits against the Biden administration, spending at least $6.1 million in taxpayer funds on the effort. That record is the resume Trump is endorsing.
The Loyalty Machine
“Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas. John Cornyn has been a disappointment to me.” — Donald Trump, Truth Social, May 19, 2026
This is the same playbook Trump ran against Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. The qualification for office is not competence, experience, or even a clean legal record. The qualification is loyalty to one person. Cornyn voted to certify the 2020 election. Cornyn negotiated bipartisan gun legislation after Uvalde. That made him a target.
The Cook Political Report rates this seat “likely Republican,” but Talarico’s fundraising and Democratic overperformance in recent special elections have both parties watching Texas closely. If Paxton wins the runoff, the November map changes.
What This Means for Your Vote
If you are a Texas voter, the May 26 runoff decides whether the Republican nominee is a four-term senator or a man who paid nearly $7 million in legal settlements with public money after his own staff turned him in. The general election stakes are just as high. Polling shows Paxton is the weaker general election candidate. Your primary vote on Monday has consequences that last through November.
What You Can Do
- Vote May 26. Texas runoff election day is Monday. Find your polling place and bring a valid photo ID.
- Check your registration. Verify your status at votetexas.gov before Monday.
- Share the record. Send this brief to anyone in Texas who votes in Republican primaries. The legal timeline speaks for itself.
- Follow the money. Track Paxton’s campaign finance reports at the FEC and Texas Ethics Commission filings at ethics.state.tx.us.
- Read the full ethics fight. See where corruption connects to the broader Trump strategy on our Ethics and Corruption hub and the Texas state page.