$911 Billion in Medicaid Cuts Are Now Law. Here's What Hits First.

Resist Now Updated July 10, 2026 9 min read
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The Damage Is Already Underway

On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The law cuts $911 billion in federal Medicaid spending over ten years. The Congressional Budget Office projects 10 million more Americans will be uninsured by 2034.

$911 billion cut from Medicaid over ten years. 10 million more Americans uninsured by 2034.

This is not a future threat. Multiple provisions took effect in January 2026. More hit this fall. And on May 22, the Trump administration proposed an additional rule to cap state-directed Medicaid payments, which would strip another $775 billion over ten years if finalized.

“The AMA is outraged by the passage of OBBBA, which will cause an estimated 11.8 million people to lose health care coverage.” American Medical Association

Timeline: What’s Already Hit and What’s Coming

DateWhat happens
Jan 1, 2026Enhanced FMAP for new expansion states sunsets. No more 90% federal match incentive for states that haven’t yet expanded.
May 1, 2026Nebraska begins enforcing work requirements early.
May 22, 2026CMS proposes capping state-directed payments at Medicare rates, cutting $510B in federal spending.
Jun-Aug 2026States must send outreach notices to Medicaid enrollees about work requirements by mail and electronic means.
Jul 1, 2026Montana enforces work requirements. Arkansas begins checking compliance.
Oct 1, 2026Emergency Medicaid FMAP drops to the regular state rate for undocumented immigrants.
Jan 1, 2027All states must enforce 80-hour monthly work requirements for expansion enrollees ages 19-64.
Oct 2027Provider tax threshold begins dropping 0.5% per year, squeezing state Medicaid budgets through 2032.

Who Loses Coverage

The CBO estimates the uninsured population will grow by 1.3 million in 2026, 5.2 million by 2027, and 10 million by 2034. The 80-hour monthly work requirement alone accounts for $326 billion in cuts, the single largest source of savings in the bill.

If states drop their ACA Medicaid expansion because the federal match rate falls to their traditional FMAP (ranging from 50% to 77% instead of 90%), as many as 20 million expansion enrollees could lose coverage. That is nearly one in four Medicaid enrollees nationwide.

Arkansas already proved that work requirements do not increase employment. They increase paperwork. One in four Arkansans subject to the 2018 requirement lost coverage. Most of them were already working but could not navigate the reporting system.

Rural Hospitals on the Brink

Independent rural hospitals stand to lose $465 million in patient revenue in 2026 alone. Families USA estimates 55 more rural hospitals will slip into negative net income this year, bringing the total at serious risk of closure to 380.

Congress added a $50 billion Rural Health Fund as a cushion. That sounds like a lot, but it covers only 37% of projected rural Medicaid losses. Since 2020, 117 rural hospitals have already eliminated labor and delivery units because they cannot cover the costs.

What You Can Do

  1. Tell your senators to block the state-directed payments rule. The CMS proposed rule has a public comment deadline of July 21, 2026. Use Resist Bot to write your members of Congress and demand they intervene.
  2. Submit a public comment directly to CMS. The Federal Register page accepts comments from anyone. Tell CMS how capping state-directed payments would affect your community’s hospitals and providers.
  3. Check your state’s work requirement timeline. Nebraska, Montana, Iowa, and Arkansas are moving early. If you’re in an expansion state, contact your state Medicaid office to confirm your enrollment status.
  4. Call your governor’s office. Governors decide whether their state keeps or drops Medicaid expansion as federal matching funds shrink. Demand they maintain expansion.
  5. Show up at state budget hearings. State legislatures are deciding right now how to absorb these cuts. Your testimony matters at the local level.

The Bigger Picture

This brief covers the immediate damage from the One Big Beautiful Bill’s Medicaid provisions. For the full context on what’s at stake for American healthcare, including the work requirements experiment that already failed in Arkansas, read our Healthcare and Science hub.

Update, June 3, 2026: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released regulations on June 1 establishing how states must implement Medicaid work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The rules require states to evaluate the severity of a medical condition before granting a “medical frailty” exemption, not simply confirm that a condition exists, a standard stricter than what states had spent months building their systems to meet.

Nebraska launched its own work requirement on May 1 and had already published a nearly 300-page list of qualifying conditions. State advocates, including Sarah Maresh of Nebraska Appleseed, are calling on Nebraska to halt coverage terminations scheduled for this summer until the state revises its approach to match the new federal standard.

Starting in 2028, the regulations will also end self-attestation for medical frailty exemptions and require documentation instead. More than two dozen states had planned to allow self-attestation, according to KFF Health News, and consultants advising states say they will now need to reprogram eligibility systems at additional cost before the January 2027 enforcement deadline.

Update, June 5, 2026: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released an interim final rule tightening the conditions under which Medicaid enrollees can claim exemption from the work requirement mandate. People diagnosed with conditions such as sickle cell disease must now provide proof beyond their diagnosis that they are “greatly impaired” from working, eliminating automatic “medically frail” classifications for many current enrollees. All states with Medicaid expansion must implement work requirements by January 1, 2027.

The rule is stricter than what Nebraska enacted voluntarily eight months ahead of the federal deadline, which retained automatic exemptions for specific medical conditions. Jennifer Wagner, director of Medicaid eligibility and enrollment at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told Mother Jones that state officials were not briefed on the medical frailty definition during prior negotiations with federal officials. The rule also excludes Medicaid-supported employment from qualifying as “community engagement” under the law.

A 60-day public comment period is now open, and states have until the end of 2026 to finalize implementation plans. Maria Town, president and CEO of the American Association of People with Disabilities, said the exclusion of supported employment signals that disabled workers’ labor will go uncompensated. The Urban Institute projects that between 4.9 million and 10.1 million people could lose Medicaid enrollment by 2028 as a result of work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks.

Update, June 12, 2026: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released final rules on June 1 governing how states must enforce Medicaid work requirements, a deadline set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The rules apply to roughly 18.5 million enrollees in Medicaid expansion programs and require 80 hours of qualifying activity per month, including paid work, college enrollment, and volunteering. Most states must begin enforcement by January 1, 2027; Nebraska began enforcement in May.

In 2027, enrollees who cannot verify their hours through state data systems may self-attest to compliance or to being too sick to work. That self-attestation option is available once more in 2028, after which states will require documentation such as medical records or doctors’ notes. States face financial penalties for incorrectly granting exemptions, a provision that Jennifer Tolbert of KFF said will likely push states toward stricter screening.

The final rules leave the definition of “medically frail” to each state rather than setting a federal standard, a gap that Carolyn Sheridan of the National Organization for Rare Disorders said will produce inconsistent outcomes across state lines. Morgan Henderson of The Hilltop Institute at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County said high manual reporting burdens will cause coverage losses regardless of eligibility. Enrollees should confirm their current mailing address with their state Medicaid agency, as required notices must arrive by mail or email plus one additional form of contact.

(https://kffhealthnews.org), June 12, 2026]

Update, June 29, 2026: Twenty-five Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia filed suit against the Trump administration on June 29, targeting an interim final rule from the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services that narrows who qualifies as “medically frail” under the work requirement exemptions. The lawsuit names HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz as defendants, according to reporting by Stateline and Mother Jones.

The rule, published in early June, requires Medicaid recipients to document both a significant health condition and a significant impairment in their ability to work — a two-part standard that state officials say Congress never wrote into the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, who helped lead the suit, said the change left states no workable time to adjust enrollment systems or notify members.

States face an August 31, 2026 deadline to inform Medicaid recipients about the revised “medically frail” criteria, with financial penalties attached for missing it. The lawsuit asks a federal judge to stay the interim final rule and vacate parts of it before the work requirements take effect January 1, 2027.

Update, July 10, 2026: New federal Medicaid work requirements, enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed by President Trump last July, will take effect Jan. 1 in 43 states and the District of Columbia, requiring adult enrollees to document at least 80 hours per month of work, education, or community service. A KFF Health News investigation published today found the rule poses direct risk to the estimated 1 million-plus farmworkers who are U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents and rely on Medicaid. Farmworkers routinely exceed 80 hours during harvest season but fall below the threshold in off-months, often taking informal construction or landscaping jobs that produce no payroll documentation.

The same law now requires beneficiaries to verify eligibility twice a year, up from once. Akeiisa Coleman, assistant vice president at the Commonwealth Fund, told KFF Health News that missed letters and unfiled forms could terminate coverage for workers who remain technically eligible. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz announced the agency’s nationwide implementation framework in June.

Adriana Cadena, executive director of Protecting Immigrant Families, and Alexis Guild, vice president of strategy at Farmworker Justice, both warned the documentation burden will redirect workers to emergency rooms, raising costs and delaying treatment for chronic conditions. A 2021-22 California survey found 37% of male farmworkers and 47% of female farmworkers had at least one chronic health condition. Several states have already moved to implement the 80-hour rule ahead of the January deadline.

Sources

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