What November 3 Decides
On November 3, 2026, voters will fill 36 governor seats, 34 U.S. Senate seats, and all 435 House seats. Thousands of state legislative positions are also on the ballot. At least 18 governor seats are open because incumbents are term-limited or retiring.
Eight Senate incumbents are walking away. Ballot measures in at least seven states will test abortion rights and direct democracy.
This is not a normal midterm. The outcomes will determine whether Medicaid covers 5 million people or cuts them and whether state AGs keep suing the federal government or stop. In at least three states, voters will decide whether they retain the power to pass ballot measures at all.
36 governor seats, 34 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, and thousands of state legislative positions on one ballot. At least 18 governor seats are open.
Governor Races
36 seats on the ballot. At least 18 are open because incumbents are term-limited or retiring. The governors elected this November serve through 2030, controlling vetoes and redistricting.
Toss-ups and competitive open seats
| State | Situation | What’s at stake |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Open (Whitmer term-limited) | Reproductive rights amendment and union protections. Toss-up. |
| Wisconsin | Open (Evers retiring) | Veto on vouchers, Medicaid, abortion bans. New maps make both chambers competitive. |
| Georgia | Open (Kemp term-limited) | Voucher expansion and six-week abortion ban. Toss-up. |
| Kansas | Open (Kelly term-limited) | Veto on abortion ban. Kelly blocked 11 anti-abortion bills. Primary Aug 4. |
| Nevada | Lombardo (R) incumbent | Abortion access (Question 6 on ballot), Medicaid. Competitive. |
| Arizona | Open (Hobbs term-limited) | Voucher oversight, Medicaid, AG lawsuit posture. Lean D. |
Major open seats with national implications
| State | Situation | What’s at stake |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | Open (DeSantis term-limited) | Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D). Democrats haven’t won FL governor since 1994. Book bans and Medicaid. |
| Ohio | Open (DeWine term-limited) | Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Amy Acton (D). Abortion rights amendment enforcement and redistricting. |
| Texas | Abbott (R) running for 4th term | Gina Hinojosa (D) challenger. Vouchers and grid reliability. Would be longest-serving TX governor at 16 years. |
| California | Open (Newsom term-limited) | Largest state. Climate policy, housing, immigration sanctuary posture. |
| Colorado | Open (Polis term-limited) | Progressive policy model state. Reproductive rights and gun safety. |
| Maine | Open (Mills term-limited) | Medicaid, ranked choice voting, rural healthcare. |
| New Mexico | Open (Lujan Grisham term-limited) | Public lands, immigration, education funding. |
U.S. Senate Races
Democrats hold 46 seats. The margin controls judicial confirmations and whether AG lawsuits have sympathetic judges. 11 competitive races.
Toss-ups
| State | Situation | What’s at stake |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Peters retiring (D) | Open seat. Trump won MI in 2024. Mike Rogers (R) vs. TBD (D). |
| Maine | Collins (R) defending | Toss-up. Gov. Mills and veteran Graham Platner competing for Dem nomination. Primary Jun 9. |
| Georgia | Ossoff (D) defending | Won by 1.2 points in 2021 runoff. Competitive in state Trump carried. |
| Ohio | Husted (R) appointed | Sherrod Brown (D) running to reclaim seat he lost in 2024. Special election. |
Open seats and competitive races
| State | Situation | What’s at stake |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Tillis retiring (R) | Lean D. Roy Cooper (D) running. Best Dem pickup opportunity. |
| Kentucky | McConnell retiring (R) | Open for first time since 1984. Andy Barr (R) vs. Charles Booker (D). |
| Texas | Paxton (R) won runoff | Ken Paxton defeated Cornyn 62-38. Faces James Talarico (D) who leads by 5-8 points in polls. $27M Q1 fundraising. |
| New Hampshire | Shaheen retiring (D) | Open seat in swing state. |
| Iowa | Ernst retiring (R) | Open seat in state trending red. |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar retiring (D) | Open Democratic seat. |
| Illinois | Durbin retiring (D) | Open Democratic seat in safe blue state. |
Attorney General Races
AGs have filed 100+ multistate lawsuits against federal policies since 2025. At least 11 new AGs will be elected in 2026. These are the races that decide whether states fight federal overreach or cooperate with it.
| State | Situation | What’s at stake |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Mayes (D) defending | Won by 280 votes in 2022. Leads multistate lawsuits against federal overreach. |
| Texas | Johnson (D) vs. Middleton (R) | Runoffs decided May 26. Middleton (oil exec, $17M self-funded) wants to go further right than Paxton. Johnson (Dallas senator) wants consumer protection and antitrust enforcement. |
| Wisconsin | Kaul (D) defending | Won by 1.3 points in 2022. Abortion enforcement, election law defense. |
| Michigan | Open seat (D) | Defends reproductive rights law. Anchors multistate federal litigation. |
| Nevada | Open seat (D) | Consumer protection, immigration enforcement posture, federal lawsuit participation |
| Minnesota | Ellison (D) defending | Led multistate antitrust and consumer protection litigation. Competitive general expected. |
Ballot Measures
Voters have used ballot measures to protect abortion rights in seven states since Dobbs. Three states are trying to make that impossible.
| State | Measure | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Constitutional amendment | Guarantees abortion rights through second trimester |
| Nevada | Question 6 | Second required vote to enshrine abortion rights in state constitution |
| Missouri | Amendment 4 | Requires majority in all 8 congressional districts to pass citizen initiatives |
| South Dakota | Amendment L | 60% supermajority to pass any citizen-initiated constitutional amendment |
| North Dakota | Constitutional amendment | 60% supermajority for citizen-initiated constitutional amendments |
State Legislatures
Two states where the map changed everything.
| State | Situation | What’s at stake |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | Democrats need 3 Senate seats | First Democratic trifecta since 1993 |
| Wisconsin | New maps from 2024 | Both chambers competitive for the first time in a decade |
Why These Races Matter
Governors: Kansas Governor Kelly vetoed 11 anti-abortion bills. Her successor faces the same bills on day one. Wisconsin’s Evers vetoed voucher expansions and Medicaid cuts. Florida hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1994.
Ohio’s next governor enforces the abortion rights amendment voters passed in 2022. These governors serve through 2030, controlling redistricting and veto power.
Senate: Democrats are defending open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. They’re targeting North Carolina (Tillis retiring, Cooper running) and Ohio (Brown comeback). The margin decides who confirms the next Supreme Court justice.
AGs: The most underpriced fight on the ballot. Arizona’s Kris Mayes won by 280 votes and has filed 41 lawsuits against the administration. Texas’s AG seat is open for the first time in a decade.
Eleven new AGs will be elected. The multistate litigation coalition that blocks federal overreach depends on who holds these offices.
Ballot measures: Legislatures in Missouri, South Dakota, and North Dakota placed supermajority requirements on the ballot. If those pass, citizen-initiated amendments become functionally impossible in the states where they matter most.
What You Can Do Before August
- Check your registration now. Primaries in Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, and other states happen on August 4. You cannot vote if you are not registered.
- Know your primary candidates. Governor and AG nominees are decided in the primary. In many states, the primary is the real contest.
- Talk to one person who skips midterms. Turnout drops 20-30% in non-presidential years. That gap is where policy gets decided.
- Follow the AG races. They get almost no media coverage but control whether your state fights federal overreach or cooperates with it.
Sources
- Ballotpedia: 2026 U.S. Senate Elections Overview
- Cook Political Report: 2026 Governor Race Ratings
- Wikipedia: 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election
- CBS News: 11 Senate Races That Will Decide Control of the Chamber
- StateNews: Sherrod Brown Running to Reclaim Ohio Senate Seat in 2026
- NPR: 2026 Midterm Elections and Senate Control Analysis