Alaska

Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. Sixteen candidates have filed for the 2026 race, which will use the same top-four open primary and ranked choice general election system that opponents are trying to repeal for the third time.

The state faces a $1.5 billion deficit. The Permanent Fund Dividend was cut from a proposed $3,650 to $1,000. The Ninth Circuit found the Willow project violated federal environmental law. More than 9,000 Alaskans are projected to lose Medicaid.

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Fiscal plan and PFD

Dunleavy asked lawmakers to follow existing statute for the 2026 Permanent Fund Dividend, which would have paid every eligible Alaskan roughly $3,650 and cost more than $2.2 billion. The House Finance Committee voted 6-5 to temporarily set the PFD at zero. The House later passed a budget with a $1,500 PFD.

The final conference committee compromise: a $1,000 PFD plus $200 energy relief payment. Minority Republicans voted against it 4-2.

$1.5 billion projected state budget deficit for FY2027

Dunleavy proposed a statewide sales tax (SB 227) at 2% year-round, rising to 4% during tourist season. Legislators said the plan had almost no support and was likely dead after one week of hearings. Meanwhile, Dunleavy introduced a constitutional amendment (HJR 30) to permanently lock the PFD formula into the state constitution, splitting the annual draw 50/50 between dividends and government operations.

New revenue projections make the math worse. A revised estimate projects 50% less state revenue from Willow than originally anticipated. The oil windfall that was supposed to cushion the budget is shrinking before production starts.

The Alaska Senate voted 17-3 to advance a constitutional amendment establishing a dedicated public education fund. The resolution needs two-thirds of the House (27 of 40) to reach the November ballot. Two school districts sued the state in January 2026, arguing that current funding levels violate the constitutional duty to fund schools.

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Voting system

Alaska voters approved ranked choice voting and open primaries in 2020 by a margin of 50.55% to 49.45%. In 2024, a repeal initiative failed by the narrowest ballot measure margin in state history: 49.9% Yes to 50.1% No.

On December 31, 2025, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom certified 42,837 signatures across 40 House districts for a new repeal initiative. It will appear on the 2026 ballot. Donald Trump has called for repeal.

Detail	2020	2024	2026
Measure	Ballot Measure 2 (adopt)	Repeal initiative	New repeal initiative
Result	Adopted 50.55-49.45	Defeated 49.9-50.1	On ballot
Margin	1.1 points	0.2 points	TBD

The system survived in 2024 in part because of Native voter turnout. Bolts Magazine described the result as “powered by Native voters.” The 2026 initiative would repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting but would not change the campaign finance disclosure requirements from the original 2020 measure.

Sixteen candidates have filed for governor, including Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom and former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson on the Republican side, and former state Sen. Tom Begich and state Sen. Matt Claman for Democrats. Independent candidate Jessica Faircloth describes herself as a “pissed off single mother of five.” All will run through the top-four open primary on August 18, 2026, with the general election on November 3.

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Public lands

The Ninth Circuit ruled in June 2025 that BLM unlawfully approved the Willow project, finding the agency violated NEPA by screening out alternatives without adequate explanation. The court remanded without vacatur, meaning construction continues while BLM rewrites its analysis. Willow sits on Arctic coastal tundra less than 30 miles from the Arctic Ocean, in an area that is 94% wetlands.

In December 2025, BLM approved the Integrated Activity Plan for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, reopening nearly 82% of the reserve to oil and gas leasing. The plan largely aligns with the Trump-era 2020 framework.

ConocoPhillips is not stopping at Willow. The company has applied to extend ice roads and well pads farther west and wants to build roads south of Willow for seismic testing. If fully developed, Willow would release CO2 equivalent to driving 2 million extra cars for 30 years.

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Healthcare and benefits

Federal work requirements under the reconciliation bill require most able-bodied adults ages 19-64 on Medicaid expansion to complete 80 hours per month of work or qualifying activities by December 31, 2026. More than 9,000 Alaskans are projected to lose coverage.

69% of Alaskans on Medicaid expansion are automatically exempt from work requirements

Roughly 69% of Alaskans on Medicaid expansion are automatically exempt: Alaska Native people, residents of high-unemployment areas, SNAP recipients, and parents of children 13 or younger. That leaves about 19,000 who must manually request exemptions or find qualifying work. State estimates project 50-72% of that group will lose coverage because of paperwork failures or unmet requirements.

Alaska’s seasonal economy makes monthly hour tracking especially punishing. A commercial fisherman might work 300 hours in July and zero in February. An 80-hour monthly minimum does not account for that cycle.

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Native sovereignty

In January 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review Alaska’s challenge to federal protections for rural subsistence rights. The decision preserved federal authority over subsistence management on public lands and waters, leaving intact a Ninth Circuit ruling from 2025.

On October 9, 2025, Congress revoked the Central Yukon Resource Management Plan, a plan developed over a decade with tribal input covering 13.3 million acres. The plan had designated 21 conservation and research areas (3.6 million acres) and protected salmon-spawning watersheds. More than 130 federally recognized Alaska Tribes called for retaining the protections, citing the lands’ importance for salmon spawning and caribou habitat critical for food security.

The Interior Department separately reversed a February 2024 opinion that would have given Alaska tribes territorial jurisdiction over most Native allotments. Under the restored policy, the state maintains primary jurisdiction over Alaska Native-owned land, except trust lands of the Metlakatla Indian Community.

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Protect yourself right now

1. Check your voter registration. Confirm your status and learn how ranked choice voting works before the August 18 primary. Alaska uses a top-four open primary where every voter gets the same ballot.

2. Know the repeal initiative. A third attempt to repeal ranked choice voting will be on the 2026 ballot. Read the measure text and decide before you vote.

3. Verify your Medicaid status. If you receive Medicaid expansion coverage, check whether you are in the 69% auto-exempt group or need to file a manual exemption before December 31, 2026.

4. Ask governor candidates for fiscal math. Sixteen candidates are running. Ask each one how they will close the $1.5 billion deficit, what PFD level they support, and whether they back a sales tax, income tax, or neither.

5. Contact your legislators about education funding. The dedicated education fund amendment needs 27 House votes to reach the November ballot. Find your representative and ask where they stand.