Montana

Montana voters keep splitting the ticket. They passed abortion rights in 2024 while electing Republicans statewide. That makes Montana a real test of whether voters who disagree with one-party control can still defend public lands, tribal sovereignty, and rural healthcare.

The state fights are not abstract. They show up as coal leases on federal land, property tax bills for mobile home owners, and a Senate race shaped by a last-minute withdrawal.

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Anti-trans bills are moving back through the courts

Gov. Greg Gianforte signed HB 300 in March 2025. The law bars transgender women and girls from participating in female K-12 and college athletics. It takes effect October 1, 2025.

Montana tried a similar trans athlete ban in 2021, and courts struck it down. The ACLU of Montana says HB 300 has the same constitutional problems.

SB 218 adds a second pressure point. It creates a private right of action for people who claim injury from gender-affirming medical care and allows lawsuits up to 25 years after treatment.

Law	What it does	Why it matters
HB 300	Bars trans girls and women from female athletics	Repeats a policy courts already rejected
SB 218	Allows lawsuits over gender-affirming care for up to 25 years	Chills providers even when care is lawful
2021 athlete ban	Struck down as unconstitutional	Shows the legal risk is already known

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Coal leasing is back on public land

Congress rolled back the Biden-era Resource Management Plan for the Miles City BLM office, reopening roughly 2 million acres of eastern Montana for new coal leasing. Trump signed the bill.

The Powder River Basin decision came as coal economics kept moving the other direction. In October 2025, Navajo Transitional Energy Company bid $186,000 for 167 million tons of coal at Spring Creek Mine. That is roughly one-tenth of a penny per ton. The federal government rejected the bid.

167 million tons of coal received a bid of $186,000, compared with $1.10 per ton in the last major 2012 lease

The Bull Mountains mine expansion adds another layer. Earthjustice, Bull Mountain Land Alliance, Northern Plains Resource Council, and MEIC sued in March 2026 to block access to 24 million tons of BLM-owned coal. The lawsuit argues the Interior Department used Trump’s “energy emergency” declaration to skip environmental review.

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The property tax fix missed mobile home owners

Montana home prices doubled between 2017 and 2025. The legislature responded with lower rates for primary residences and long-term rentals, higher rates for second homes and short-term rentals over $1.5 million.

The catch is enrollment. Homeowners had to opt in to receive lower rates. Many mobile home owners missed the step, even though they are often the least able to absorb a tax spike.

Jefferson County Treasurer Terri Kunz warned that some mobile home owners “are not going to be able to afford these increased taxes.” That is the difference between a policy fix and a usable policy fix.

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Medicaid was saved, but rural hospitals are still exposed

Montana reauthorized Medicaid expansion in 2025 with bipartisan support. Enrollment is still falling. The state had 217,711 expansion enrollees in 2025, the lowest since expansion began.

Uncompensated care is rising again. Charity care surged to $370 million, up from a post-expansion low of $179 million. Federal Medicaid changes now threaten the rural hospitals that expansion helped stabilize.

Medicaid measure	Montana impact
Expansion enrollment	217,711 in 2025
Enrollment drop	More than 90,000 below peak
Uninsured rate	12.1%, back near 2016 levels
Charity care	$370 million
Projected federal loss	$2-$4 billion over 10 years
People at risk	34,000 by 2034

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Tribal voting rights are still being defended in court

SB 490 eliminated eight hours of Election Day voter registration. Indigenous voters in rural tribal communities disproportionately register after noon on Election Day, exactly the window the bill cut.

Western Native Voice and four tribal nations challenged the law. On May 11, 2026, Montana’s First Judicial District enjoined SB 490. Full Election Day registration remains in place for now.

Tribal sovereignty is also under federal pressure. Trump’s 2026 budget proposes more than $600 million in Bureau of Indian Affairs cuts, including a $107 million cut to public safety and justice programs tied to Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women work.

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The Senate race changed three minutes before the deadline

Sen. Steve Daines withdrew from the 2026 race at 4:57 p.m., three minutes before the filing deadline. Kurt Alme, the U.S. Attorney for Montana, filed eight minutes before the deadline and received Trump’s endorsement within hours.

That turned the race into a three-way contest with Alme, Democrat Reilly Neill, and independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president. CNN reported the timing was meant to block Democrats from fielding Jon Tester, Brian Schweitzer, or Steve Bullock.

Candidate	Lane	Why it matters
Kurt Alme	Republican, Trump-endorsed	Entered as Daines withdrew
Reilly Neill	Democrat	Faces a compressed statewide race
Seth Bodnar	Independent	Could change the math in a split electorate

Sen. Tim Sheehy is also central to Montana’s federal politics. In March 2026, he physically helped eject antiwar protester Brian McGinnis, a Marine veteran, from a Senate hearing. McGinnis’s arm was broken in a door during the removal.

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Protect yourself right now

1. Check your voter registration. Verify at sosmt.gov/elections. Full Election Day registration remains available after the SB 490 injunction, but do not wait if you can verify earlier.

2. Track public land decisions. Watch BLM coal leasing notices and Bull Mountains litigation. These decisions affect water, ranching, tribal sites, and climate policy.

3. Ask candidates about Medicaid. Rural hospitals cannot absorb large federal losses without cutting services or closing departments.

4. Know your property tax status. If you own a mobile home or primary residence, confirm whether you enrolled for the lower residential rate.

5. Watch the Senate race rules. Last-minute candidate swaps change voter choice. Ask every candidate whether they support open filing rules and tribal voting access.