19 Congressional Seats, 191 State Seats: The Nationwide Cost of Callais

The Numbers

A Black Voters Matter and Fair Fight study counted the damage. Across 10 southern states, 19 congressional seats and 191 state legislative seats held by representatives elected from majority-Black districts are at risk after the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision on April 29.

Hispanic-majority districts could drop from 69 to 56 in the South alone. Total majority-minority state legislative districts could fall from 342 to 202.

That is not a forecast. It is already happening.

Who Is Moving

Four weeks after the ruling, six states have taken concrete steps to redraw maps. Three more are positioning to follow.

State	Action taken	Seats targeted	Status
Tennessee	Signed new map into law May 7. Memphis split three ways.	1 congressional (9th CD)	Done. NAACP lawsuit filed.
Louisiana	Suspended May 16 primary. Legislature redrawing map.	1-2 congressional	In progress. The case that started it all.
Alabama	Supreme Court reinstated the 2023 gerrymandered map on June 2, overruling the lower court that found it intentionally discriminated against Black voters. Special primary August 11.	1 congressional (7th CD)	Map reinstated. Sotomayor dissented.
Georgia	Gov. Kemp called special session for June 17 to redraw congressional and state maps.	1-2 congressional + state seats	Session not yet started.
South Carolina	House passed resolution to redraw the 6th CD, the state’s only Black-majority district. Primaries pushed to August.	1 congressional	Bills introduced.
Mississippi	Gov. Reeves called special session May 20. Officially for Supreme Court districts, but congressional maps likely on the agenda.	1 congressional (2nd CD, Rep. Bennie Thompson)	Session underway.

Democracy Docket’s live tracker maps every active redistricting effort nationwide.

The Full Scope

Congressional seats are the headline, but the Brennan Center warns that local government is where the deepest damage will land. Nearly half of all Section 2 cases since 1982 challenged city councils, county commissions, and school boards using at-large elections. Those communities have no national media attention and few litigation resources.

“The majority’s rule renders Section 2 all but a dead letter.”

— Justice Elena Kagan, dissenting

The Brookings Institution estimates that aggressive redistricting could net Republicans 16 to 18 additional congressional districts before the 2026 midterms. The Congressional Research Service confirmed that Callais fundamentally shifts the legal framework, making it functionally impossible to challenge maps based on discriminatory outcomes alone.

What You Can Do

Push the John Lewis VRA. The John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act would restore the effects test that Callais destroyed. Send the letter through Resistbot.
Track your state. If you live in Georgia, South Carolina, or Mississippi, your maps are being redrawn right now. Show up to public hearings. Written testimony matters in future court challenges.
Support litigation. The NAACP Legal Defense Fund, Campaign Legal Center, and Democracy Docket are challenging these redraws in court. Twenty-eight existing VRA lawsuits were derailed by Callais. New legal strategies need funding.
Watch June 17. Georgia’s special session is the next domino. Public pressure before that date can shape how far the legislature goes.

Update, June 3: The Supreme Court reinstated Alabama’s 2023 congressional map on June 2 in an unsigned 6-3 order. The map has one Black-majority district instead of two. A three-judge panel had twice blocked the map as intentionally discriminatory against Black voters under the 14th Amendment. The conservative majority sent it back for reconsideration under Callais.

Justice Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson, wrote in dissent that the majority “debases the democratic process by upending Alabama’s entire election in the name of permitting Alabama to discriminate against Black Alabamians” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”

Alabama’s special primary is scheduled for August 11 under the reinstated map. Roughly 600,000 registered voters across three counties will be reassigned.