The Trump Administration Killed USAID. A Lancet Study Says 9.4 Million People Could Die by 2030.

9.4 Million Projected Deaths

A Lancet study published in February 2026 projects that global aid cuts resulting from the closure of USAID could lead to 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030. Roughly 2.5 million of those would be children under five. A separate UCLA analysis puts the figure even higher at 14 million deaths, including 4.5 million children.

These are not hypotheticals. The Center for Global Development estimates between 500,000 and one million additional deaths occurred in 2025 alone, the first year of cuts.

What the Trump Administration Did

On January 20, 2025, the administration froze all USAID funding. On March 10, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that 83% of USAID programs would be cancelled, covering 5,341 contracts worth $75.9 billion. On July 1, 2025, the administration officially closed USAID and folded 300 remaining staff into the State Department.

The agency lost 97% of its workforce. More than 10,000 direct employees and over 200,000 global staff lost their jobs or stopped receiving pay.

The Human Cost by Sector

Sector	What was lost	Projected impact
Maternal health	Services for 16.8 million pregnant women cut	45% increase in maternal deaths in affected populations
Child health	Treatment for 14.8 million children with pneumonia/diarrhea eliminated	53,577 additional child malaria deaths
HIV/AIDS (PEPFAR)	80% of global health awards terminated	159,000 adult deaths and 16,000 child deaths by January 2026
Vaccines	$1 billion in Gavi funding terminated	23 million children lost education access
Food assistance	$420 million cut from food programs in FY2026	95 million people lost access to basic healthcare

Aid Cuts Are Fueling Conflict

A study published in Science found that communities in Africa that previously received USAID support experienced increased conflict after aid disappeared. People who relied on that assistance became more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups. A separate NPR investigation confirmed the link between the abrupt USAID shutdown and rising violence.

An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May 2026 drew direct attention to the loss of disease surveillance capacity that USAID staff once provided.

“Places that once received more assistance tended to experience more conflict once that aid abruptly disappeared, often because those who had relied on that aid had become more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups.”

— Science, May 2026

The FY2026 Budget Makes It Permanent

The administration’s FY2026 budget request includes zero dollars for bilateral maternal and child health efforts. Food assistance moved to USDA received $1.44 billion, $420 million less than the previous year. Gavi received $300 million after initially being zeroed out. These are fractions of what existed before.

This is part of a broader pattern of dismantling foreign policy institutions while concentrating power in the executive branch.

What You Can Do

Write your representatives on Resistbot demanding restoration of global health funding and congressional oversight of foreign aid decisions.
Call your senators and ask them to oppose the FY2026 budget’s elimination of maternal and child health funding. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee still has jurisdiction.
Ask your House representative to cosponsor legislation restoring an independent development agency. The AFSA coalition statement provides specific legislative language.
Share the Lancet findings with people who believe these cuts only affect other countries. Disease outbreaks do not respect borders. The Ebola outbreak is already testing that premise.