The Department of Justice is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, where he allegedly earned tens of thousands of dollars by betting against himself appearing at the State of the Union address.
Santos publicly announced on social media in February that he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address, telling followers “I’m going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys.” His video confirmation sent betting odds soaring on Kalshi, where traders had placed millions of dollars in wagers on who would attend.
Tens of thousands of dollars
Santos’ alleged profit from betting against his own attendance while publicly saying he would go
But Santos had already placed bets on Kalshi that he would not appear at the address, according to three people with direct knowledge of his trades. When he failed to show up, posting “Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML” as Trump spoke, the odds plummeted and Santos profited from his deception.
Kalshi detected the suspicious trading activity, froze Santos’ account, and referred the case to both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice. Both agencies opened investigations into Santos’ conduct.
When contacted by NPR, Santos said the investigation was “news to me” and declined to confirm whether he had a Kalshi account. He acknowledged knowing Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara personally, calling her “a fellow Brazilian.”
This marks the latest legal trouble for Santos, who was expelled from Congress and served federal prison time before his release in October 2025. The case highlights growing concerns about the regulation of prediction markets and potential manipulation by insiders with non-public information.
What you can do now
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Contact the CFTC at (866) 366-2382 and demand transparency about the Santos investigation timeline. The agency regulates prediction markets but hasn’t commented publicly on this case.
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Call your representatives at (202) 224-3121 and ask them to support stricter oversight of prediction markets. Ask specifically about preventing elected officials from trading on insider knowledge.
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Submit a complaint to the House Ethics Committee at ethics.house.gov if you believe Santos violated ethics rules while in office. The committee can recommend further sanctions even for former members.
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Contact your state securities regulator through nasaa.org to ask about prediction market oversight in your state. Many states lack specific regulations for these emerging platforms.
Update, June 2, 2026: The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have opened separate investigations into former Republican congressman George Santos for insider trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi, NPR reported on June 2. Santos allegedly posted a video to X on February 28 claiming he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address while holding Kalshi bets that he would not appear, according to three people with direct knowledge of his trades.
Kalshi detected the activity, froze Santos’ account, and referred the case to federal regulators, according to a person familiar with the company’s internal investigation. Santos told NPR, “Well, that’s news to me,” when asked about the probe, and declined to confirm whether he holds a Kalshi account.
The Santos investigation is part of a broader federal push against prediction market manipulation. In April, DOJ charged a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier for making more than $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Last week, DOJ charged a Google employee for making more than $1 million on Polymarket by trading on confidential search-trend data from the company.
Primary Sources
NPR: DOJ Investigating George Santos for Insider Trading on Kalshi