2 NC House Races Now Rated Toss-Ups by Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Two North Carolina congressional races have moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, one of the most-cited election forecasters in the country. The shifts in the 1st and 11th districts place North Carolina at the center of Democratic efforts to flip the House in the 2026 midterms.
The moves are part of a broader national pattern. Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 13 House seats nationally toward Democratic candidates in the same update.
13 House seats nationwide shifted toward Democratic candidates in Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s latest ratings update
The environment driving those shifts, analyst Kyle Kondik wrote, is President Donald Trump’s unpopularity. Voters have soured on the party in power, creating headwinds for Republican incumbents and candidates even in seats with built-in GOP advantages.
NC-1: Redistricting Backfires on Republicans
North Carolina’s 1st District race puts Republican redistricting strategy on trial. The new congressional map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature was drawn explicitly to push out Rep. Don Davis, the Democratic incumbent. Davis is now favored to make that effort look like a miscalculation.
Davis faces a rematch with 2024 Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout. A Libertarian candidate is also in the race, which Democrats say will split the non-Davis vote. Kondik noted that Davis “has already won a pair of tough races in different, albeit less red, versions of this seat in recent years.”
NC-11: An Incumbent With an Ethics Problem and a Fundraising Gap
Rep. Chuck Edwards faces a harder road in the 11th District. Edwards is under a House Ethics Committee inquiry over an alleged affair, which he denies. He has also struggled to raise money compared to his Democratic challenger, Jamie Ager.
Ager has strong ties to the region. His grandfather held a version of the 11th District seat in the 1980s, and he has posted strong fundraising numbers backed by a surge in small-dollar donations. Cook Political Report moved the 11th from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in a separate update, reflecting the same competitive pressure.
The 11th backed Trump by roughly 10 points, making it a steep climb for Ager. But Kondik wrote that the national environment “could sand down some of that generic Republican lean.”
The broader North Carolina picture also favors Democrats. Former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead in fundraising and polling over Republican Michael Whatley in the U.S. Senate race, shifting that contest to “Leans Democratic” in Sabato’s ratings.
What You Can Do Now
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Donate directly to Jamie Ager’s campaign at jamieager.com or Don Davis’s campaign at dondavisforcongress.com. Both races are now defined by fundraising gaps, and the filing window for 2026 is already closed.
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Call the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee at (202) 863-1500 and tell them you want maximum resources invested in NC-1 and NC-11. National party investment in toss-up districts directly affects field staffing and ad buys in the final months before November.
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Contact your county Board of Elections to confirm your voter registration is current. North Carolina requires voters to be registered at least 25 days before Election Day. Find your county board at ncsbe.gov.
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Volunteer for voter registration drives in Buncombe, Henderson, or Haywood counties in NC-11, or Pitt, Edgecombe, or Halifax counties in NC-1. Both districts have low-propensity Democratic voters who could shift the outcome. Contact the NC Democratic Party at ncdp.org to connect with local organizing.