The Experiment Already Failed
When Arkansas required Medicaid enrollees to report 80 hours of monthly work activity in 2018, 18,000 people lost coverage in seven months. That was one in four people subject to the rule. Employment did not increase at all.
A peer-reviewed study in the New England Journal of Medicine found the requirement produced zero employment gains while driving up the uninsured rate. Among those who lost coverage, 56% delayed care due to cost and 50% took on serious medical debt. A federal judge struck down the policy in 2019.
On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which takes the Arkansas model national. Every state must enforce Medicaid work requirements by January 1, 2027.
Who Loses Coverage
The Congressional Budget Office estimates 5.2 million adults will lose Medicaid by 2034. That means roughly one in every 14 current Medicaid expansion enrollees will be dropped, not because they stopped qualifying, but because they could not navigate the paperwork.
Here is the part that makes it worse: 64% of Medicaid adults already work. Another 28% are not working because of caregiving, disability, or school. The requirement does not find unemployed people. It creates a paperwork trap for people who are already doing what the law demands.
“I am insanely worried. It’s made my depression way worse.” — Crystal Schroer, Nebraska Medicaid enrollee, NPR, May 1, 2026
State Implementation Timeline
Nebraska became the first state to enforce the requirements on May 1, 2026. Three states are moving ahead of the federal deadline. The rest must comply by January 2027.
| State | Start Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | May 1, 2026 | Enforcing now |
| Montana | July 1, 2026 | Implementing early |
| Iowa | December 1, 2026 | Implementing early |
| Georgia | Has active waiver | Transitioning to federal rules by Jan 2027 |
| All other expansion states | January 1, 2027 | Mandatory deadline |
43 states total will be required to implement work requirements, including all 41 expansion states plus DC, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
The Cost Nobody Talks About
This is not just a coverage story. The Commonwealth Fund projects hospital operating margins will drop 12.5% to 14.2% nationally when work requirements take full effect. Rural hospitals that already run on thin margins will be hit hardest. Up to 5.6 million community health center patients could lose coverage, threatening $32 billion in health center revenue.
Your state is paying for the bureaucracy to kick people off their insurance. CBPP estimates many states lack the systems to verify work hours and will spend millions building new reporting infrastructure.
What You Can Do
- Check your status now. If you are on Medicaid, find out whether your state is implementing early and whether you qualify for an exemption. Do not wait for a letter in the mail.
- Contact your state legislators. Tell them to use every available exemption and extension. States can request extensions until December 31, 2028 if they demonstrate good faith implementation efforts.
- Call your U.S. representative. Ask them to support repealing the work requirement provisions of H.R. 1. The CBO says this single provision accounts for the largest share of the $911 billion in Medicaid cuts.
- Share this with someone on Medicaid. The Nebraska Hospital Association warned that many enrollees do not know these changes are coming.
- Follow the tracker. KFF’s implementation tracker monitors each state’s waiver status and policy decisions in real time.
See your state page for local Medicaid details and the Economy hub for the full picture.
Update, June 3, 2026: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services issued regulations on June 1 requiring states to enforce Medicaid work requirements, forcing them to rebuild computer systems they had spent months preparing. The rules narrow the medical frailty exemption, requiring states to assess the severity of a person’s condition rather than accepting a diagnosis alone, and bar homelessness as a qualifying reason.
Nebraska, which launched its own work requirement on May 1 under a nearly 300-page list of qualifying conditions, now faces an overhaul of that framework to meet the new federal standard. Medicaid enrollees in Nebraska are scheduled to begin losing coverage this summer, prompting advocacy group Nebraska Appleseed to call on the state to pause terminations while it resolves the conflict with the federal rules.
Starting in 2028, CMS will restrict self-attestation of medical frailty and require documentation as proof, affecting more than two dozen states that had planned to let enrollees declare conditions themselves. Kinda Serafi, a partner at Manatt Health who advises states, described the regulations as a “significant policy pivot.” Daniel Meuse, deputy director of Princeton University’s State Health and Value Strategies program, said states will have to undo months of completed work.
Update, June 5, 2026: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released an interim final rule implementing Medicaid work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill, with a January 1, 2027 deadline for all Medicaid expansion states to comply. The rule strips automatic “medically frail” exemptions from people already enrolled in Medicaid with diagnosed conditions, including sickle cell disease, requiring them to separately prove they are “greatly impaired” from working.
Jennifer Wagner, director of Medicaid eligibility and enrollment at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said state officials were blindsided by the new medical frailty definition and attributed the change to White House pressure rather than CMS staff. A 60-day public comment period is now underway, though Wagner said states will not be able to implement the requirements accurately by the January deadline.
Maria Town, president and CEO of the American Association of People with Disabilities, noted that Medicaid-supported employment will not qualify as “community engagement” under the rule, excluding a category of work that Medicaid itself funds. The Urban Institute projects the requirements and more frequent eligibility checks will reduce Medicaid enrollment by between 4.9 and 10.1 million people by 2028, with the interim rule’s stricter terms likely to push that figure toward the higher end.
Update, June 12, 2026: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released final rules on June 1 setting out how states must verify that certain Medicaid enrollees are working or completing qualifying activities under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The rules apply to roughly 18.5 million people covered through Medicaid expansion and require 80 hours of qualifying activity per month. Most states must begin enforcement by January 1, 2027.
Nebraska began enforcing the rules in May; Montana plans to start in July but will not disenroll anyone until October. Arkansas will begin a soft launch in July with no penalties until 2027, and enrollees in most states will be permitted to self-attest compliance in 2027 and once in 2028, after which states must collect documentation. States that incorrectly grant exemptions from the rules face federal financial penalties, a provision that Jennifer Tolbert at KFF said will make state agencies more cautious and push eligible people off the rolls.
Consumer advocates said the exemption process for people too sick to work is more restrictive than anticipated, with no standardized federal definition of who qualifies as medically frail. Carolyn Sheridan, associate director of state policy for the National Organization for Rare Disorders, said the same health condition could meet the threshold in one state but not another. Morgan Henderson at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County’s Hilltop Institute said higher documentation burdens will produce coverage losses among people who remain legally eligible.
Update, June 24, 2026: West Virginia is among the first states to begin public outreach ahead of the national Medicaid work requirement deadline set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The state Department of Human Services launched WVMedicaidHelp.org on June 24 and is urging the state’s 161,184 Medicaid expansion enrollees to verify their mailing address, email, and phone number with the agency before January 1, 2027.
Under the new law, adults ages 19 through 64 enrolled in expansion Medicaid must document at least 80 hours per month of qualifying activity, including employment or job training, to retain coverage. Christy Donohue, commissioner of the West Virginia Bureau for Medical Services, said the department is building automated systems to verify eligibility data electronically and reduce the paperwork burden on enrollees.
The department is asking recipients to monitor all state correspondence through the end of 2026. West Virginia Watch reported in May 2026 that a survey found most Medicaid recipients in the state were not yet aware the requirements were coming.
Update, June 29, 2026: Twenty-five Democratic-led states plus the District of Columbia sued the Trump administration on June 29, targeting an interim final rule that narrows the “medically frail” exemption to Medicaid work requirements, according to Stateline and Mother Jones. The lawsuit names HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz as defendants and was led in part by Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell and Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha.
The interim final rule, published this month by HHS and CMS, requires Medicaid recipients to demonstrate both a significant health condition and significant impairment in their ability to work to qualify for the medically frail exemption. State officials argue that Congress drew no such two-part distinction in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and that the guidance arrived after states had already spent months working with CMS on implementation.
The lawsuit asks a federal court to stay the rule and vacate portions of it. States face an August 31, 2026, deadline to notify Medicaid recipients of the new medically frail standards, with financial penalties for noncompliance, and must implement full work requirements by January 1, 2027.
Update, July 7, 2026: Indiana’s Family and Social Services Administration announced implementation rules for Medicaid work requirements that take effect Jan. 1, 2027, under the state’s Healthy Indiana Plan. Adults ages 19 to 64 enrolled in HIP must document 80 hours per month of work, school, or volunteering to keep coverage. New applicants must prove three consecutive months of compliance before they can enroll, beginning in October 2026.
The Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation estimate that between 102,000 and 116,000 Hoosiers could lose eligibility once the requirement takes hold. FSSA Secretary Mitch Roob said the state does not expect the requirements to generate savings for Indiana’s general fund, because the expansion population is funded almost entirely by the federal government, with the remaining 10% covered through hospital assessment fees.
Indiana’s work requirement law was passed last year and structured to comply with the national mandate in President Trump’s 2025 tax bill, which requires all states to impose work requirements on Medicaid expansion enrollees. FSSA will hold town halls and virtual webinars this summer to explain the rules. Enrollment in HIP has already dropped from roughly 671,000 when Gov. Mike Braun signed the law to around 487,000 as of June, six months before requirements begin. (Indiana Capital Chronicle)
Update, July 10, 2026: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by President Trump, requires 43 states and the District of Columbia to implement Medicaid work requirements by Jan. 1, 2027, mandating that enrolled adults document at least 80 hours per month of work, education, or community service. The law also doubles the eligibility verification schedule, requiring beneficiaries to confirm their status twice a year rather than once. A KFF Health News report published July 10 examines how the rule threatens coverage for more than one million farmworkers who are U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents.
Advocates say the 80-hour monthly threshold conflicts with seasonal agricultural employment, in which workers routinely exceed the threshold during harvest but fall short during off-months. Alexis Guild, vice president of strategy and programs at Farmworker Justice, told KFF Health News that cash-paid and informal work between harvests is difficult to document under the new standard. Farmworkers who relocate across state lines face the additional step of transferring Medicaid enrollment with each move.
CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz announced a “nationwide framework” for implementation in June 2026. Akeiisa Coleman, assistant vice president at the Commonwealth Fund, warned that mailed eligibility notices are routinely missed, putting eligible enrollees at risk of losing coverage through paperwork failures. Adriana Cadena, executive director of Protecting Immigrant Families, said coverage losses will redirect care to emergency rooms, raising costs and wait times across the system.
Update, July 12, 2026: Arkansas has begun a “soft launch” of Medicaid work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by President Trump. The state is using a six-month window to verify whether expansion enrollees meet the requirements before enforcement begins in January. No one loses coverage during this testing period.
State officials estimate up to 42,000 Medicaid expansion enrollees could lose coverage when the requirements take effect. Centene, one of two insurers covering Arkansas Medicaid expansion enrollees, announced it will exit the program in January. Arkansas leads the nation in the share of rural hospitals at risk of closure, according to the Arkansas Advocate.
Arkansas ran work requirements once before, and a federal judge blocked them after 18,000 people lost coverage without measurable employment gains. A 2019 New England Journal of Medicine analysis found that more than 95 percent of targeted enrollees already met the requirement or qualified for an exemption. That study found no significant changes in employment associated with the policy.
Sources
- KFF: A Closer Look at Work Requirement Provisions
- CBO: Health Coverage Estimates of Reconciliation Law
- CBPP: Medicaid Work Requirements Will Take Away Coverage From Millions
- NEJM: Medicaid Work Requirements, Results from the First Year in Arkansas
- Commonwealth Fund: Impact on Hospital Revenues and Margins
- NPR: Day 1 of Medicaid Work Requirements in Nebraska
- KFF: Understanding the Intersection of Medicaid and Work