Japan, 1975
In the three years before Japan suspended pertussis vaccination in 1975, the country recorded about 400 cases and 10 deaths. In the three years after, cases spiked to over 13,000 with 113 deaths. A nationwide outbreak in 1979 infected tens of thousands. 41 infants died of pertussis in that year alone.
400 cases → 13,000. 10 deaths → 113. Japan suspended pertussis vaccination and the disease came back in three years.
Japan resumed vaccination in 1981 with an improved acellular vaccine. Cases dropped. The experiment was over. It proved exactly what epidemiologists predicted.
United Kingdom, 1998-2024
In 1998, Andrew Wakefield published a study in The Lancet linking the MMR vaccine to autism. The study was fraudulent. The Lancet retracted it. Wakefield lost his medical license. But vaccination rates in parts of England dropped below 50%.
Fifteen years later, a measles epidemic hit the UK. In 2024, England recorded 2,911 laboratory-confirmed measles cases, the highest since 2012. In January 2026, the World Health Organization announced that the UK lost its measles elimination status. A child died of measles in 2025.
One fraudulent paper. Decades of declining vaccination. A preventable death.
Nigeria, 2003
In 2003, religious and political leaders in northern Nigeria boycotted the oral polio vaccine, claiming it was a Western plot to sterilize Muslim children. Vaccination rates collapsed. Nigeria became the “most important generator” of vaccine-derived poliovirus in the world, accounting for more than half of all vaccine-derived polio cases globally. The virus exported from Nigeria to 18 other countries.
A disease that was nearly eradicated returned because misinformation convinced parents not to vaccinate their children. The pattern is the same in every case. The misinformation differs. The biology does not.
The United States, Now
The U.S. recorded 2,012 measles cases in 2025, a 30-year high. 93% were unvaccinated. Two children died in Texas. The Health Secretary directed the CDC to remove 6 vaccines from the recommended schedule. The U.S. is on track to lose measles elimination status for the first time in decades.
Japan showed what happens when a government stops vaccinating for pertussis. The UK showed what happens when a fraudulent study erodes public confidence in MMR. Nigeria showed what happens when political leaders weaponize health misinformation. Each case proved the same thing. Vaccines work. Removing them kills people. The timeline from policy change to deaths is measured in years, not generations.
The United States is not at the beginning of this experiment. It is watching the results from other countries and choosing to repeat it.
Read more on the Healthcare hub and the RFK measles brief.